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Index Betting
Today the FTSE 100 Index is say 6300 and Mrs C believes it will rise
in the next 2 months to around 6500. She calls for a quote on January
3rd for the March FTSE price. The expiry date is March 1st.
The quote she is given is 6315-25. She decides to buy £10 per point.
So she goes long at 6325.
Result 1
Mrs C buys £10 at 6325 and no guaranteed stop-loss.
In approximately 2 weeks time after a strong move in the market the
FTSE index price is 6400-6410.
Mrs C reviews her position.
She decides to take the profit.
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Profit |
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Mr C long at |
6325 |
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Price 2 weeks later |
6400 |
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Difference |
+75 |
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Result +75 x £10 stake |
= £750 profit |
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Result 2
In approximately 2 weeks time after poor market conditions the FTSE
index price is 6240-6250.
Mrs C reviews her position.
Mrs C decides to take the loss.
|
Loss |
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Mr C long at |
6325 |
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Price 2 weeks after |
6400 |
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Difference |
-75 |
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Result -75 x £10 stake |
= £750 loss |
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Result 3
Mrs C has decided to buy a guaranteed stop-loss at 6300 at the same
time that she places her bet. She buys the market at 6325 +5 which is
the premium charged in this case for the guaranteed stop-loss. This
premium varies and depends on the types of bet, the time value and
volatility of the particular instrument. So her actual long position
(buy) is at 6330. Unfortunately a week later the market falls to 6000.
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Loss |
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Mr C long at |
6325 + 5 (GSL*) |
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Position closed out at 6000 |
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but guaranteed stop-loss |
6300 |
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Difference |
-30 |
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Result -30 x £10 stake |
= £300 loss |
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*Guaranteed stop-loss
So despite a large fall in the market, Mrs C has lost no more than
she would have done if the market had only fallen to her stop-loss at
6300. She has paid a type of insurance policy, the extra 5, in order
to ensure that her losses are limited to £ 300.
Result 4
Mrs C runs the position to expiry and has no guaranteed stop-loss.
The expiry price is 6350.
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Profit |
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Mr C long at |
6325 |
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Price of XYZ on Mar 1st |
6350 |
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Difference |
+25 |
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Result +25 x £10 stake |
= £250 profit |
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Result 5
Mrs C runs the position to expiry and has no guaranteed stop-loss.
The expiry price is 6000.
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Loss |
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Mr C long at |
6325 |
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Price of XYZ on Mar 1st |
6000 |
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Difference |
-325 |
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Result -225 x £10 stake |
= £3250 loss |
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The only difference between Result 3, a loss of £ 300, and
Result 5, a loss of £ 3250, is due to the guaranteed stop-loss.
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