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Index Betting

Today the FTSE 100 Index is say 6300 and Mrs C believes it will rise in the next 2 months to around 6500. She calls for a quote on January 3rd for the March FTSE price. The expiry date is March 1st.

The quote she is given is 6315-25. She decides to buy £10 per point.

So she goes long at 6325.

Result 1

Mrs C buys £10 at 6325 and no guaranteed stop-loss.

In approximately 2 weeks time after a strong move in the market the FTSE index price is 6400-6410.

Mrs C reviews her position.

She decides to take the profit.

Profit

 

Mr C long at

6325

Price 2 weeks later

6400

 

Difference

+75

Result +75 x £10 stake

= £750 profit

 

 

 Result 2

In approximately 2 weeks time after poor market conditions the FTSE index price is 6240-6250.

Mrs C reviews her position.

Mrs C decides to take the loss.

Loss

 

Mr C long at

6325

Price 2 weeks after

6400

 

Difference

-75

Result -75 x £10 stake

= £750 loss

 

 

Result 3

Mrs C has decided to buy a guaranteed stop-loss at 6300 at the same time that she places her bet. She buys the market at 6325 +5 which is the premium charged in this case for the guaranteed stop-loss. This premium varies and depends on the types of bet, the time value and volatility of the particular instrument. So her actual long position (buy) is at 6330. Unfortunately a week later the market falls to 6000.

Loss

 

Mr C long at

6325 + 5 (GSL*)

Position closed out at 6000

but guaranteed stop-loss

6300

Difference

-30

Result -30 x £10 stake

= £300 loss

 

*Guaranteed stop-loss

So despite a large fall in the market, Mrs C has lost no more than she would have done if the market had only fallen to her stop-loss at 6300. She has paid a type of insurance policy, the extra 5, in order to ensure that her losses are limited to £ 300.

Result 4

Mrs C runs the position to expiry and has no guaranteed stop-loss.

The expiry price is 6350.

Profit

 

Mr C long at

6325

Price of XYZ on Mar 1st

6350

Difference

+25

Result +25 x £10 stake

= £250 profit

 

 

Result 5

Mrs C runs the position to expiry and has no guaranteed stop-loss.

The expiry price is 6000.

Loss

 

Mr C long at

6325

Price of XYZ on Mar 1st

6000

Difference

-325

Result -225 x £10 stake

= £3250 loss

 

 

The only difference between Result 3, a loss of £ 300, and Result 5, a loss of £ 3250, is due to the guaranteed stop-loss.

 

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